How the U.S. Could Sink a Chinese Aircraft Carrier: A Strategic Scenario Breakdown.

As geopolitical tensions in the Asia-Pacific region continue to simmer, the South China Sea remains a focal point of international interest. The body of water, rich in resources and a critical conduit for global maritime trade, has become an arena of heightened military activity and strategic positioning. At the heart of this tension is the People’s Republic of China, which aims to establish itself as the world’s leading economic and military superpower by 2049. To achieve this goal, China has been aggressively expanding its naval capabilities, including the development of aircraft carriers. However, China’s geographic position presents challenges for projecting power beyond its borders, particularly when facing opposition from neighboring countries and external powers like the United States. This article explores a hypothetical scenario that answers a critical question: what would an attempt by the U.S. Navy to sink a Chinese aircraft carrier look like?

The Strategic Environment: China’s Geographic Dilemma

China’s ambitions are significantly constrained by its geography. Its eastern coastline is hemmed in by a series of island nations — Japan, Taiwan, and the Philippines — that are hostile to its expansionist policies. These islands, forming what is commonly known as the First Island Chain, are strategically located in a way that could be used to block Chinese access to the open ocean. In response to this, China has invested heavily in expanding its navy, now boasting three aircraft carriers with a fourth on the way. However, China has yet to break free from the constraints of the First Island Chain and has focused on militarizing and fortifying sea lanes within its perceived sphere of influence.

Despite China’s naval expansion, it has not achieved local supremacy, largely due to the U.S. Navy’s presence and its regular freedom of navigation operations (FONOPS). These missions, intended to challenge China’s territorial claims, serve as a reminder of the U.S.’s commitment to maintaining open access to international waters. But what if one of these FONOPS led to a full-blown naval confrontation? How would the U.S. Navy go about sinking a Chinese aircraft carrier in such a scenario?

A Hypothetical Conflict: Winter 2025

Let us imagine a situation unfolding in the winter of 2025. Tensions are high in the South China Sea, with China ramping up its aggressive tactics against Filipino vessels in the Philippines’ Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). This region, internationally recognized under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), has been a source of friction for years, as China claims much of the South China Sea under its so-called “Nine-Dash Line.” The scenario begins innocently enough, with a Filipino fishing boat nearing the disputed Scarborough Shoal. China, having seized the shoal in 2012, sinks the boat, prompting a sharp escalation in hostilities.

In response, the U.S. Navy sends one of its Arleigh Burke-class destroyers to conduct a FONOP near the Spratly Islands. As tensions rise, a collision between Chinese and American vessels becomes inevitable, sparking a broader military engagement. The Chinese People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) dispatches one of its aircraft carriers and its accompanying battle group to the area, while the U.S. responds with a carrier group of its own. Both nations’ submarines are already prowling beneath the waves, adding a layer of complexity to the unfolding crisis.

Naval Engagement and Escalation

The initial naval skirmishes are characterized by close encounters between aircraft from both sides. China, eager to project power, launches a squadron of J-15 Flying Sharks from its aircraft carrier. The U.S. responds with F/A-18 Super Hornets. As the two sides maneuver aggressively, a collision occurs between aircraft, leading to the first shots being fired. One of the Chinese pilots, panicking in the heat of the moment, launches a missile, sparking full-scale air-to-air combat.

In response to the growing threat, the U.S. Navy prepares to escalate the conflict further. Squadrons of F/A-18 Super Hornets equipped with RGM-84 Harpoon anti-ship missiles are scrambled. These missiles, designed to skim the water at subsonic speeds, are capable of devastating damage if they strike at the waterline of a ship. Although China’s HQ-16 surface-to-air missiles attempt to intercept the incoming Harpoons, the sheer volume of missiles launched overwhelms Chinese defenses. At least one of the forward-deployed Chinese ships is sunk as the Super Hornets continue their attack.

The Role of Submarines

Beneath the surface, the U.S. Navy’s nuclear-powered submarines, such as the Seawolf-class attack submarines, come into play. These submarines are among the quietest and most lethal in the world, equipped with advanced Mark 48 torpedoes and Harpoon missiles. In the chaos of battle, one of these submarines positions itself near the Chinese carrier group and begins launching torpedoes at Chinese escort ships. The PLAN’s surface vessels struggle to detect the submarine and are caught off-guard by the underwater assault, further weakening their defensive perimeter.

Air Superiority and Advanced Technology

As the battle rages on, the skies above the South China Sea become a theater of intense aerial combat. The U.S. Navy’s F-35B Lightning II stealth fighters, equipped with advanced electronic warfare capabilities and the AGM-158 Long Range Anti-Ship Missile (LRASM), begin targeting the Chinese aircraft carrier. The LRASM, a stealthy and AI-guided missile, is launched at close range to minimize the enemy’s reaction time and maximize its kinetic energy upon impact. Despite the Chinese carrier’s advanced radar systems, the LRASM’s stealth technology allows it to evade detection until it is too late.

The Chinese aircraft carrier is struck by multiple LRASMs, severely damaging its structure and causing it to list. The crew has no choice but to abandon the ship as it begins to sink. Meanwhile, American Super Hornets and F-35s continue to neutralize the remaining Chinese aircraft, outclassing them with superior tactics and radar technology.

The Outcome: Pyrrhic Victory

Despite the U.S. Navy’s superior technology and tactical proficiency, the engagement comes at a high cost. Many American ships are damaged by Chinese ballistic and cruise missiles, including the formidable DF-21D anti-ship ballistic missile, which poses a significant challenge to U.S. defenses. Several U.S. aircraft are also lost, and thousands of sailors and pilots on both sides are killed or wounded. By the end of the engagement, the Chinese carrier is sunk, but the battle has taken a heavy toll on both nations’ military assets.

The Cost of Confrontation

In this hypothetical scenario, the U.S. Navy emerges victorious, but at a significant cost. While China’s military has made considerable advancements, it still lags behind the United States in terms of stealth technology, radar systems, and the overall survivability of its surface fleet. However, China’s proximity to the battlefield gives it a logistical advantage, allowing it to replace lost assets more quickly than the U.S., whose supply lines stretch thousands of miles across the Pacific.

Ultimately, this scenario serves as a reminder that while the U.S. retains military superiority, the cost of defeating a Chinese force in the South China Sea has grown considerably. As China continues to expand its naval capabilities, the region will remain a potential flashpoint for future conflict, with both sides paying a heavy price in the event of a confrontation.