Russia’s Doomsday Missile: The RS-28 Sarmat (Satan-II) — A Catastrophic Failure or an Inevitable Step?

The RS-28 Sarmat, unofficially nicknamed “Satan-II,” is the latest in Russia’s lineup of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), designed to be a super-weapon capable of annihilating adversaries on an unprecedented scale. With the ability to carry up to 14 nuclear warheads and reach targets across the globe, it has been hailed as the next-generation missile in Russia’s nuclear arsenal. However, recent events have thrown its reliability into question, following a catastrophic failure at the Plesetsk Cosmodrome in September 2024. This explosion was the latest in a string of misfires for Russia’s most formidable weapon, leaving analysts and defense experts pondering whether the Sarmat will ever live up to its terrifying promise.

The September 2024 Explosion: A Monumental Setback

On September 17, 2024, Russia announced a missile test that was scheduled to take place between September 19 and 23. However, the test was abruptly canceled, and by September 20, a massive fire erupted at the Plesetsk Cosmodrome, specifically at the Yubileynaya test launch site. The explosion left the facility in ruins, with satellite images revealing a crater 62 meters wide, effectively reducing the area to smoldering rubble. Though details remain unclear, it is widely believed that this disaster was linked to a fueling mishap or an in-silo explosion of the RS-28 Sarmat missile.

This isn’t the first time the Sarmat has failed; it’s the third (or possibly fourth) failed test, marking a troubling trend for Russia’s missile development program. Despite its earlier success in April 2022, this string of failures raises concerns about the missile’s viability, especially considering its critical role in Russia’s nuclear deterrence strategy.

The Sarmat’s Specifications: What Makes It Dangerous?

The RS-28 Sarmat is no ordinary missile. Standing at 35 meters long and weighing 229 tons, it dwarfs the U.S.’s Minuteman III ICBM, which measures 16 meters and weighs just under 40 tons. The Sarmat is engineered to carry multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles (MIRVs), allowing it to release numerous warheads aimed at different locations across thousands of miles.

Its capabilities don’t end with traditional ballistic missile attacks. Russian media has touted that the Sarmat could also serve as a Fractional Orbital Bombardment System (FOBS), which would allow it to enter partial orbit before releasing its warheads, thus making it more difficult for missile defense systems to track and intercept. Additionally, the Sarmat is reportedly capable of deploying Avangard hypersonic glide vehicles, which can maneuver unpredictably while skipping across the atmosphere, further complicating missile defense efforts.

However, all these capabilities rely on one thing: the missile actually making it out of its silo and successfully launching.

Why Do Modern Missiles Keep Failing?

The Sarmat is not the only missile experiencing frequent failures. Similar issues have plagued other Russian missiles, such as the “Skyfall” nuclear-powered cruise missile, which exploded during a test in 2019, and even American missile programs. The U.S. has experienced its own string of difficulties with hypersonic weapons development, with multiple failed tests in 2023 for the Army’s Dark Eagle missile and the Navy’s Conventional Prompt Strike missile.

What’s causing these modern missiles to fail, especially those that are nuclear-capable? One potential reason is the use of liquid fuel, which, while more energy-dense than solid fuel, poses significant engineering and logistical challenges. Liquid fuel is highly unstable, and it cannot sit in a missile indefinitely without degrading and potentially corroding the missile’s fuel tank.

The RS-28 Sarmat uses a highly toxic and volatile liquid fuel called UDMH (unsymmetrical dimethylhydrazine) along with N204 oxidizer. This propellant is extremely dangerous to handle, emitting toxic fumes and becoming highly flammable at certain concentrations. The Sarmat’s use of liquid fuel means that it requires careful fueling and de-fueling procedures, increasing the risk of accidents during test launches. Analysts have suggested that the September explosion may have occurred during the fueling or de-fueling process, when the fuel tank became over-pressurized or leaked, leading to a catastrophic fire and explosion.

Russia’s Push for Sarmat: A Strategic Need

The RS-28 Sarmat’s development was pushed forward by geopolitical factors, particularly Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2014. At that time, the aging R-36M2 Voevoda ICBMs (nicknamed “Satan”) were reaching the end of their service life, and they had been manufactured in Ukraine during the Soviet era. After the 2014 invasion, Ukraine was no longer willing to assist Russia in maintaining these missiles, forcing Russia to accelerate the development of the Sarmat as a replacement.

Despite initial success in component tests between 2017 and 2021, the Sarmat program has faced ongoing technical difficulties, including the failure of a second-stage booster during a test in 2023. Nonetheless, Russia officially entered the missile into operational service in September 2023, despite it not being fully combat-ready, and planned to deploy the missile at two divisions.

The Sarmat program was developed under intense pressure to replace the aging R-36M2, but the need for a rapid timeline may have compromised the quality of its engineering. This rush, coupled with the complexities of liquid-fueled missiles, appears to be the root cause of its recent failures.

A Return to Soviet Strategy: Mass Production Over Precision

Russia’s approach to nuclear weapons development has long relied on producing a large number of missiles, rather than focusing on the precision and accuracy that define U.S. missile programs. While American doctrine emphasizes precision-guided munitions, such as the JDAM and JASSM, Russia and China have leaned towards developing high-speed, survivable munitions, such as hypersonic weapons.

However, the speed-oriented approach also comes with significant challenges. Hypersonic missiles, such as the Avangard glide vehicle designed to be deployed by the Sarmat, require advanced materials and precision engineering to maintain structural integrity at extreme speeds. Any flaw in the manufacturing process can lead to catastrophic failures, as demonstrated by Russia’s ongoing difficulties with the Sarmat.

According to defense experts, the Sarmat’s issues may stem from Russia’s inability to meet the quality control standards necessary for such complex systems. Reduced budgets and a shortage of skilled personnel, exacerbated by the international sanctions imposed after the Ukraine invasion, have likely compounded these challenges.

Moreover, Russia’s strategy of producing missiles in greater numbers rather than focusing on accuracy means that its weapons, while dangerous, are less precise and reliable than their American counterparts. Historically, the Soviet Union adopted a similar approach during the Cold War, producing vast numbers of nuclear weapons and delivery systems to compensate for technological shortcomings. This quantity-over-quality strategy may explain why Russia continues to pursue the Sarmat program despite its frequent failures.

The Future of the RS-28 Sarmat: Will It Ever Be Ready?

Despite its setbacks, the RS-28 Sarmat is unlikely to be abandoned anytime soon. Russia has invested heavily in its development, and President Vladimir Putin has personally touted the missile as one of Russia’s most powerful strategic assets. However, until the technical issues are resolved, the missile remains far from being the apex weapon of mass destruction that Russia claims it to be.

For now, the Sarmat serves more as a symbol of Russia’s ambitions than as an effective tool of nuclear warfare. The repeated test failures suggest that the missile is far from combat-ready, and it may take several more years of development before it can be considered fully operational.

In the meantime, Russia will continue to rely on its existing arsenal of ICBMs, including the aging R-36M2s, which are still capable of delivering nuclear strikes, though with less accuracy and reliability than the Sarmat promises.

A Weapon Built on Hype?

The RS-28 Sarmat has been hyped as the ultimate doomsday weapon, capable of bypassing missile defenses and delivering massive nuclear strikes on targets across the globe. Yet, despite the fanfare, the missile has been plagued by a series of high-profile failures, culminating in the September 2024 explosion at Plesetsk. These failures highlight the challenges of developing advanced nuclear-capable weapons, particularly in a nation like Russia, where economic and technical constraints may hinder the achievement of such ambitious goals.

While the Sarmat may eventually overcome its current hurdles, it is clear that Russia’s missile development program is far from perfect. For now, the Sarmat remains a symbol of Russia’s nuclear aspirations, but its ability to live up to the “Satan-II” nickname remains to be seen.