Why the Ukraine War Could Cost Russia 1,500,000 Troops: A Deep Dive into the Conflict’s Human Toll.

The ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine has seen heavy casualties on both sides, with Russia bearing the brunt of these losses. Between May and July 2024 alone, Russia experienced a staggering 70,000 casualties, nearly 1,000 dead and wounded per day, according to the U.K.’s Ministry of Defence. These escalating numbers have led analysts to revise their predictions, suggesting that Russia could ultimately face up to 1.5 million casualties before the war concludes. This estimate is a sobering reminder of the human cost of conflict and raises significant questions about the long-term impact on the Russian military and its government.

Russia’s Shift in Objectives and Implications for Casualties

As the war has dragged on, Russia’s objectives in Ukraine have shifted. Initially, the goal seemed to be the total takeover of Ukraine or at least the toppling of the post-Euromaidan government in Kyiv. However, in July 2024, the newly-appointed Chief of Staff of the British Army, General Sir Roly Walker, noted a significant shift in Russia’s strategy. According to Walker, Russia now aims to take full control of four areas it claimed to annex in 2022: the Kherson, Donetsk, Luhansk, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts.

This shift has implications for how long the conflict might last and how many more soldiers Russia could lose. Walker estimated that at the current attrition rate, it could take Russia five years to achieve its minimum objectives of capturing these four oblasts. This protracted timeline suggests that Russia is likely to suffer staggering casualties, potentially up to 1.5 million. To put this in perspective, such a figure has not been seen since World War II.

As of July 2024, British sources estimate that Russia has already taken around 550,000 casualties in just over two and a half years of fighting. However, these are only estimates, as Russia has not been forthcoming about the true extent of its losses. Still, several indicators suggest that the number of dead and wounded is only set to rise.

Ukraine’s Defensive Strategy and Its Impact on Russian Losses

One of the main reasons analysts believe Russia will face even higher casualties in the coming years is Ukraine’s shift in military posture. Rather than focusing on regaining lost territory, Ukrainian forces have adapted to a defensive strategy aimed at inflicting maximum damage on Russian forces. By shifting their tactical objectives to defense, Ukraine is prioritizing the killing or maiming of as many Russian soldiers as possible while destroying enemy equipment and mitigating its own losses.

Ukraine’s defensive approach has been particularly effective in battles like the one for Avdiivka, where Russia suffered significant losses. By December 2023, approximately 3,000 Russian troops had been killed or wounded for every square mile they captured around Avdiivka, a testament to Ukraine’s ability to resist Russian advances even during periods of severe ammunition shortages.

Since then, Ukraine has strengthened its resolve and capabilities, thanks in large part to international support. One of Ukraine’s key advantages has been its use of fast-moving, small FPV drones, which have inflicted significant damage on Russian forces. These drones have become crucial in Ukraine’s war effort, with Ukrainian officials claiming that drones are now one of the most important weapons in their arsenal.

By 2024, Ukraine had ramped up the production of FPV drones, with President Zelensky making the production of one million drones a top priority. These drones have played a critical role in destroying thousands of Russian tanks and vehicles, further weakening Russian forces. Additionally, Ukraine’s drone pilots have become highly skilled, capable of targeting specific individuals hiding in confined spaces, such as apartment units. This precision in drone warfare has contributed to the increasing toll on Russian forces.

Russia’s Struggles with Drone Warfare and Artillery Shell Shortages

Russia, for its part, has struggled to keep up in the drone warfare race. Many of the jammers it desperately needs to counter Ukraine’s drones simply do not work, leaving Russian forces vulnerable to drone attacks. The result is that Russian troops must push through an ever-increasing screen of Ukrainian drones, which has made their assaults costlier in terms of lives and equipment. If Russia continues to fail in providing adequate jammers, its casualties are likely to increase as Ukraine’s drone operations intensify.

Another factor contributing to Russia’s mounting losses is the ongoing artillery shell shortage. While Ukraine has also faced shortages of artillery shells, the situation has improved somewhat since the United States resumed military aid in mid-2024. A coordinated effort led by the Czech Republic and involving non-Western countries such as South Korea, Turkey, and South Africa has resulted in the transfer of over a million artillery shells to Ukraine. The influx of shells has already had a significant impact, with some Ukrainian troops now outshooting their Russian counterparts along certain parts of the front line.

Artillery shells have caused 80% of the total casualties in the war, and as Russia loses its firepower advantage, its casualties will naturally grow. Ukraine’s increasing supply of shells has put further pressure on Russian forces, making their assaults even more costly. Despite the replenishment of its artillery stocks through partners like North Korea and Iran, Russia is still struggling to secure the level of firepower needed for large-scale offensives. This shortage of artillery has forced Russia to rely on smaller, grinding operations that result in high casualties.

Russia’s Recruitment and Manpower Crisis

To sustain its war effort, Russia has been forced to recruit new troops at an alarming rate. In June 2024, President Putin claimed that 700,000 Russian troops were fighting in Ukraine, but given the size of the country and the high attrition rate, this number is still likely insufficient to meet the Kremlin’s objectives. In response to the growing need for manpower, the Russian military raised its signing bonus to $22,000 in July 2024, nearly double what it was at the end of 2023. With annual benefits totaling around $60,750, military service in Russia is now more lucrative than many other jobs in the country, including those in the critical oil and gas sector.

However, the increase in military payments has had negative effects on Russia’s wider economy. The energy sector, which is essential to Russia’s economy, is now facing staff shortages as workers leave for higher-paying military positions. This trend is exacerbating the difficulties Russia faces in sustaining its war effort.

The Russian government has also implemented new measures to conscript more soldiers, including raising the age limit for conscription from 27 to 30 and making it easier to issue conscription notices through a digital government portal. Those who fail to report for duty face punishment, even if they do not have an account in the portal. Critics of this system have dubbed it a “digital gulag.” Additionally, the age limit for reservists eligible for mobilization has been raised to 70, further highlighting the Kremlin’s desperation for more troops.

In addition to domestic recruitment efforts, Russia has looked abroad for foreign mercenaries, particularly from Africa. Ukrainian intelligence reports that Russia has been recruiting soldiers from countries like Rwanda, Burundi, Congo, and Uganda, offering them salaries significantly higher than the average incomes in those countries. These foreign troops, however, are unlikely to change the course of the war and are more likely to be sent to the front lines as cannon fodder.

Long-Term Implications for Russia

Despite Putin’s efforts to find more troops, analysts are skeptical that these new recruits will significantly alter the trajectory of the war. General Walker, the new head of the British Army, has predicted that Russia could lose between 1.5 million and 1.8 million soldiers over the five years it would take to capture the four oblasts. However, this figure assumes that Ukraine will continue to receive support from its Western partners, especially in the form of artillery shells.

The survival of Putin’s regime is closely tied to the outcome of the war, and he is unlikely to back down, even as Russian casualties mount. For Putin, the stakes are not just military but political. He cannot afford to leave Ukraine empty-handed, as doing so could threaten his hold on power. As long as he can continue to mobilize troops, Putin seems willing to push forward, regardless of the cost of human lives.

Looking ahead, there is a real possibility that the conflict in Ukraine could escalate into a broader global confrontation. Walker warned that by 2027, multiple security threats to the West could converge, including continued Russian aggression in Eastern Europe, a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan, and Iran’s nuclear ambitions. If these threats do materialize, the West may face a much larger security challenge, one that cannot be solved in isolation.

In conclusion, the war in Ukraine shows no signs of ending soon, and Russia is poised to suffer heavy losses in the years ahead. As casualties continue to rise, the long-term impact on Russia’s military, economy, and government will be profound. The question now is whether Russia can sustain its war effort in the face of mounting casualties and whether the West will continue to provide the support Ukraine needs to defend its territory.